Sales Forecasting System for Products at Dunio Petshop Using the Prophet Method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37676/jki.v5i3.1858Keywords:
MAPE, Prophet, Sales ForecastingAbstract
Dunio Petshop has difficulty estimating sales quantities, causing inventory decisions to rely mainly on judgment and physical stock checks. This study aims to develop a web-based goods sales forecasting system using the Prophet method. The dataset consists of historical sales of 20 pet-food products from January to December 2025. Development follows the CRISP-DM stages and integrates PHP, MySQL, and Python. The system produces 120 forecasts for January-June 2026. Black Box Testing confirms that all major functions operate as required. MAPE evaluation places 15 products (75%) in the Fair category and 5 products (25%) in the Poor category; Catlife Salmon records the lowest MAPE at 22.72%, while Smartheart Cat records the highest at 72.26%. The system can support stock-planning decisions, while a longer historical series is required to improve forecasting accuracy
References
1. Albanna, H. T., & Diana, D. (2025). Forecasting penjualan sembako berbasis model Prophet: Strategi efisiensi stok pada ritel tradisional. Edumatic: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika, 9(3), 698-707. https://doi.org/10.29408/edumatic.v9i3.32251
2. Arifin, Nasir, M., Murfat, M. Z., & Syahnur, M. H. (2022). Statistika. PT. Eureka Media Aksara.
3. Hidayat, K., Witanti, W., & Ramadhan, E. (2025). Analisis tren dan prediksi penjualan restoran menggunakan model time series Prophet. Metik Jurnal, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.47002/metik.v9i2.1101
4. Khaw, B., Irwanto, R., Yunis, R., & Elly, E. (2025). Analisis time series dan perancangan dashboard untuk memprediksi penjualan dengan metode Prophet dan SARIMAX. Jurnal Sifo Mikroskil, 26(2). https://doi.org/10.55601/jsm.v26i2.1797
5. Nurani, A. T., Setiawan, A., & Susanto, B. (2023). Perbandingan kinerja regresi decision tree dan regresi linear berganda untuk prediksi BMI pada dataset asthma. Jurnal Sains dan Edukasi Sains, 6(1), 34-43. https://doi.org/10.24246/juses.v6i1p34-43
6. Pardosi, A. R., & Iriani. (2024). Analisis perencanaan peramalan dan safety stock Sprite 250ML dengan metode time series di PT XYZ. Jupiter: Publikasi Ilmu Keteknikan Industri, Teknik Elektro dan Informatika, 2(2), 10-21.
7. Putra, N. R., Aziz, A., & Zaini, A. (2023). Implementasi metode simple regresi linear dan single exponential smoothing untuk memprediksi produksi padi Jawa Timur. Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi-Universitas PGRI Kanjuruhan Malang, 5(2), 95-102.
8. Rianti, A., Wachid, N., Majid, A., & Fauzi, A. (2023). CRISP-DM: Metodologi proyek data science. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Bisnis (SENATIB), 107-114. https://ojs.udb.ac.id/index.php/Senatib/article/view/3015
9. Sugianto, V. A. N., Danarwindu, G. A., & Prihatmoko, H. (2025). Perbandingan metode peramalan volume transaksi Sistem Resi Gudang: Prophet, exponential smoothing dan SARIMA. Emerging Statistics and Data Science Journal, 3(2
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Relis Syahputra, Maryaningsih Maryaningsih, Eko Suryana

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.



.png?updatedAt=1786357491332)

