Sales Forecasting System for Products at Dunio Petshop Using the Prophet Method

Authors

  • Relis Syahputra Universitas Dehasen Bengkulu
  • Maryaningsih Maryaningsih Universitas Dehasen Bengkulu
  • Eko Suryana Universitas Dehasen Bengkulu

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37676/jki.v5i3.1858

Keywords:

MAPE, Prophet, Sales Forecasting

Abstract

Dunio Petshop has difficulty estimating sales quantities, causing inventory decisions to rely mainly on judgment and physical stock checks. This study aims to develop a web-based goods sales forecasting system using the Prophet method. The dataset consists of historical sales of 20 pet-food products from January to December 2025. Development follows the CRISP-DM stages and integrates PHP, MySQL, and Python. The system produces 120 forecasts for January-June 2026. Black Box Testing confirms that all major functions operate as required. MAPE evaluation places 15 products (75%) in the Fair category and 5 products (25%) in the Poor category; Catlife Salmon records the lowest MAPE at 22.72%, while Smartheart Cat records the highest at 72.26%. The system can support stock-planning decisions, while a longer historical series is required to improve forecasting accuracy

References

1. Albanna, H. T., & Diana, D. (2025). Forecasting penjualan sembako berbasis model Prophet: Strategi efisiensi stok pada ritel tradisional. Edumatic: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika, 9(3), 698-707. https://doi.org/10.29408/edumatic.v9i3.32251

2. Arifin, Nasir, M., Murfat, M. Z., & Syahnur, M. H. (2022). Statistika. PT. Eureka Media Aksara.

3. Hidayat, K., Witanti, W., & Ramadhan, E. (2025). Analisis tren dan prediksi penjualan restoran menggunakan model time series Prophet. Metik Jurnal, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.47002/metik.v9i2.1101

4. Khaw, B., Irwanto, R., Yunis, R., & Elly, E. (2025). Analisis time series dan perancangan dashboard untuk memprediksi penjualan dengan metode Prophet dan SARIMAX. Jurnal Sifo Mikroskil, 26(2). https://doi.org/10.55601/jsm.v26i2.1797

5. Nurani, A. T., Setiawan, A., & Susanto, B. (2023). Perbandingan kinerja regresi decision tree dan regresi linear berganda untuk prediksi BMI pada dataset asthma. Jurnal Sains dan Edukasi Sains, 6(1), 34-43. https://doi.org/10.24246/juses.v6i1p34-43

6. Pardosi, A. R., & Iriani. (2024). Analisis perencanaan peramalan dan safety stock Sprite 250ML dengan metode time series di PT XYZ. Jupiter: Publikasi Ilmu Keteknikan Industri, Teknik Elektro dan Informatika, 2(2), 10-21.

7. Putra, N. R., Aziz, A., & Zaini, A. (2023). Implementasi metode simple regresi linear dan single exponential smoothing untuk memprediksi produksi padi Jawa Timur. Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi-Universitas PGRI Kanjuruhan Malang, 5(2), 95-102.

8. Rianti, A., Wachid, N., Majid, A., & Fauzi, A. (2023). CRISP-DM: Metodologi proyek data science. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Bisnis (SENATIB), 107-114. https://ojs.udb.ac.id/index.php/Senatib/article/view/3015

9. Sugianto, V. A. N., Danarwindu, G. A., & Prihatmoko, H. (2025). Perbandingan metode peramalan volume transaksi Sistem Resi Gudang: Prophet, exponential smoothing dan SARIMA. Emerging Statistics and Data Science Journal, 3(2

Downloads

Published

2026-09-11

How to Cite

Syahputra, R., Maryaningsih, M., & Suryana, E. (2026). Sales Forecasting System for Products at Dunio Petshop Using the Prophet Method. Jurnal Komputer Indonesia, 5(3), 183 – 192 . https://doi.org/10.37676/jki.v5i3.1858

Issue

Section

Articles

Most read articles by the same author(s)